XRP price prediction as reserves hit 11.81B. Can $1.25 support hold and fuel a rally toward $2 despite declining leverage?
XRP rebounded to $1.30 after gaining 2.15% in 24 hours, as increased ledger activity and a recovery above $1.28 support strengthened the short-term outlook.
Analyst Ali Charts identified $1.25 as a potential bottom after the dollar value of XRP transferred on-chain reached $49.70 billion. However, CryptoQuant data shows exchange reserves climbed to 11.81 billion XRP on October 17, placing them in the 99th percentile of the past year.
Meanwhile, Binance open interest declined as leveraged positions unwound during the recent price correction. Can buyers defend support while exchange-held supply remains elevated?
Ali Charts argued that XRP could have established a bottom near $1.25 after a sharp increase in on-chain transaction value. The analyst linked the activity to the rebound and suggested that holding this level could open a path toward $2.
XRP: THE BOTTOM IS IN
Transaction volume on the $XRP Ledger exploded last night as prices hovered around the $1.25 support.
The total dollar value of coins transferred on-chain skyrocketed to $49.70 billion, coinciding with the rebound that is now taking place.
This surge in… https://t.co/vTEFhtC5ss pic.twitter.com/fQTEvKsTKk
— Ali Charts (@alicharts) October 19, 2026
XRP’s latest price action provides some support for the recovery scenario. CoinMarketCap data at press time shows the token trading at $1.30, up 2.15% over 24 hours.
Its relative strength index (RSI), an indicator of price momentum, stood at 36.94, while price remained above the reported 200-day moving average at $1.28.
Trading volume also increased by 48%, supporting the rebound with greater market participation. Still, a bounce from oversold conditions does not confirm a lasting reversal.
XRP needs to maintain support and attract sustained buying to strengthen the bullish case.
XRP Exchange Reserves Reach 11.81 Billion
CryptoQuant reported that aggregate XRP exchange reserves reached 11.81 billion on October 17. This placed them in the 99th percentile of the previous 365 days.
High exchange balances can indicate that substantial supply is available for trading, although reserves alone do not confirm that holders intend to sell.
Binance open interest fell from $538.1 million on October 4 to $453 million on October 17, a decline of 15.8%. Long liquidations reached $25.7 million on October 7–8, while XRP dropped from $1.52 to $1.29 over the same period.
The Binance leverage ratio also declined from 0.205 to 0.170, and funding was negative on six of the 11 days. CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain interpreted these movements as evidence that leveraged bullish positions were being cleared.
XRP Reserves Hit 11.81B, Near Yearly High, as Binance Leverage Unwinds
“For now, the clearest reading is that leverage has reset faster than exchange supply has.” – By @CryptoOnchain
Complete breakdown ⤵️https://t.co/smBvKtGm5J pic.twitter.com/xFEMzReMcD
— CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) October 19, 2026
However, Binance reserves stood at 2.67 billion XRP, at the 30th percentile of their yearly range, suggesting the broader reserve increase was concentrated elsewhere.
XRP Rally Targets $1.40 and $2
In the near term, XRP’s ability to hold $1.28 remains important. A sustained recovery above this level could bring resistance between $1.34 and $1.40 into focus. Failure to defend support would leave $1.25 vulnerable to another test.
Market analyst XRP Update identified a weekly support zone between $1.22 and $1.34.
If buyers defend this range, the analyst highlighted potential upside levels at 1.50–1.70, followed by $2.09 and $2.32. These remain conditional targets rather than confirmed price outcomes.
Traders should also monitor exchange reserve changes, spot trading volume and open interest for evidence of renewed demand.
CryptoQuant noted that whale volume fell 44% week over week, while tokens transferred declined 37%. For now, XRP’s rebound offers a possible recovery signal, but elevated reserves and weaker on-chain activity leave the broader outlook unresolved.
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